The US tariff pause ends on 9 July 2025, a deadline that could have serious economic consequences for South Africa. The 90-day tariff suspension—introduced in April—gave South Africa and other nations time to negotiate trade terms under a new U.S. policy that demands “reciprocal” tariffs.
Without a signed agreement, key South African exports such as citrus, vehicles, steel, and aluminium will face significantly higher tariffs—up to 31%. The risk of these tariffs snapping back has increased urgency among South African trade officials, businesses, and agricultural groups.
ALSO READ: Rand Weakens Due to Middle East Tensions: US Bombing of Iranian Sites Affects Markets
What Happens When the US Tariff Pause Ends?
If no new deal is reached by 12:01 am EDT on 9 July, the current 10% base tariffs on South African exports will automatically jump to 31%, under an executive order issued by former President Donald Trump (Webber Wentzel).
South Africa is one of 19 countries that received this temporary tariff relief in April. Now, unless a bilateral trade deal is in place, duties on critical sectors will be fully reinstated, threatening exports worth billions.
South Africa’s Response
South Africa’s Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC) has:
- Formally requested a time extension for negotiations
- Asked the U.S. Trade Representative to maintain the 10% tariff while talks continue
- Submitted a sector-focused trade package aligned with the U.S. “Africa trade template”, focusing on automotive, energy, and critical minerals
Trade Minister Parks Tau has said the government remains hopeful that “our proposals will be accepted” and that the country is working to avoid the economic harm that the reinstated tariffs would bring.
Jobs and Exports at Risk
The potential impact of these tariffs is significant:
- Around 35,000 jobs in the citrus sector could be affected, especially in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo.
- South Africa’s exports to the U.S. were valued at R156.8 billion in 2024.
- The automotive sector, including vehicles and parts, accounted for R35 billion of those exports.
- Tariffs could also impact the steel and aluminium industries, which rely on price competitiveness in U.S. markets.
According to Reuters, South African citrus exports are already under pressure due to shipping costs and market competition. A 31% tariff would further reduce demand in the U.S. and put farmers and packhouses at risk.
Other African Countries in a Similar Position
South Africa is not alone. Other African countries—such as Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Botswana—are also facing tariff hikes ranging between 30% and 50% if they fail to secure their own bilateral agreements.
This shift comes as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which currently gives many African exports duty-free access to the U.S., is set to expire in September 2025. In 2023, AGOA supported over $9.7 billion in U.S. imports from Africa, including nearly $1 billion in agricultural goods.
What the U.S. Wants
The U.S. is shifting away from broad trade preferences and focusing on sector-specific, country-level deals. This new model focuses on:
- Energy partnerships, including LNG
- Critical minerals for clean energy
- Manufacturing and automotive supply chains
- Digital infrastructure and supply chain security
South Africa’s proposal to the U.S. includes many of these elements and seeks to position the country as a strategic partner in areas like clean technology and resource processing.
Urgent Diplomatic Window
U.S. officials have confirmed that only countries actively negotiating in good faith may be granted further relief. So far, only the UK has finalised its bilateral agreement. Others—including South Africa—are racing against time to reach terms.
Busi Mavuso, CEO of Business Leadership South Africa, warned:
“Without a deal in place, South Africa faces a serious economic shock that could be avoided with more agile diplomacy.”
The U.S. Treasury has signalled that time is short but not yet up—countries that make meaningful proposals could still avoid the full tariff snapback.
What Needs to Be Done
As the US tariff pause ends, South Africa should prioritise the following steps:
- Secure an immediate extension to maintain 10% tariffs during negotiations.
- Finalise a sectoral trade agreement that includes strategic industries.
- Push for the renewal or reform of AGOA ahead of its September 2025 expiry.
- Align trade offers with U.S. priorities in energy, minerals, and manufacturing.
With just days remaining, these decisions will shape the future of South Africa’s trade relationship with one of its largest global partners.
READ MORE: Government to Launch Online Stores: What Will a South African-Made Dress Cost?