SARB slashes repo rate to 7% as inflation dips and rand strengthens—what it means for South Africans
In a move that caught many economists off guard, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down from 7.25% to 7%. The surprise decision, announced on 29 May 2025, comes on the back of slowing inflation, a stronger rand, and growing concerns over weak global and local economic growth.
Delivering the announcement, SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago noted that while the decision was not unanimous, the majority of the MPC saw an opportunity to stimulate the economy while locking in a low inflation environment.
A Volatile Global Landscape
Global economic uncertainty played a significant role in the MPC’s decision. Governor Kganyago highlighted that trade tensions, particularly those involving the US, have led to fluctuating tariffs, selling off of US assets, and a pivot toward safe-haven assets like gold and the euro.
These dynamics are expected to dampen global growth, prompting central banks such as the Bank of England and European Central Bank to cut their policy rates. While the US Federal Reserve held rates steady, global interest rates are trending downward.
Despite these shifts, global inflation presents a mixed bag—tariffs and supply chain disruptions may push inflation higher, but this could be countered by lower oil prices and ample capacity in economies like China.
Local Growth Concerns Mount
South Africa’s own economic indicators have not painted a rosy picture. Kganyago revealed that although Q1 growth data is still pending, the mining and manufacturing sectors have underperformed, and unemployment has increased. The SARB has revised its GDP growth forecast to 1.2% for 2025, slightly up to 1.8% by 2027.
He stated, “The outlook for structural reforms remains positive, but there are also headwinds like lower global growth.”
Inflation Dips Below Expectations
April saw inflation falling to below 3%, driven largely by a drop in fuel prices. Notably, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, settled at 3%, the bottom of SARB’s 3–6% target range.
Several factors contributed to this:
- Stronger rand
- Lower global oil prices
- Cancelled VAT increases
- Revised fuel levy assumptions
Consequently, the SARB has revised down its inflation forecast, acknowledging balanced risks to the outlook.
Why the Rate Cut Now?
Given the recent currency volatility, which briefly saw the rand dip to multi-year lows, the SARB had previously warned of risks. But the rand has since rebounded. With inflation well contained and global growth risks looming, five out of six MPC members voted for a 25bps cut, while one pushed for a more aggressive 50bps reduction.
Kganyago said the move allows the bank to support growth without compromising on price stability.
The 3% Inflation Target Scenario
In a forward-looking section of his address, Kganyago introduced a scenario targeting 3% inflation—the lower end of the SARB’s target range. If achieved, this would allow the policy rate to drop below 6% over time, ushering in sustainably lower interest rates.
The SARB and National Treasury have been working closely on this long-term strategy, which could stabilize inflation expectations at 3% by 2026, improving economic performance in the long run.
Reforms Still Crucial
Despite the rate cut, Kganyago warned that monetary policy alone cannot fix economic challenges. He called for:
- Fiscally responsible public debt management
- Rebuilding and modernizing infrastructure
- Tackling administered price inflation
- Aligning real wage growth with productivity
The cut is a welcome boost, but true economic transformation still depends on structural reforms and effective governance.
What This Means for You
For ordinary South Africans, the repo rate cut means potential relief on loan repayments, including home loans, car financing, and credit card interest rates. Banks may soon begin adjusting their prime lending rates, which could free up household budgets and encourage consumer spending.
However, with global uncertainties still looming, the SARB has signalled that future decisions will remain data-dependent and cautious.
Final Word
This rate cut is more than just a policy tweak—it’s a signal of optimism amid cautious realism. If inflation continues to behave and reforms gain momentum, South Africans could be looking at a more stable and prosperous economic horizon.
Also read: The Battle of Zero-Fee Bank Accounts: What You Need to Know