Global trade is entering a period of major change. New US tariffs are disrupting supply chains, driving up costs, and forcing countries to rethink their export strategies. Experts argue that while the tariffs are disruptive, they are also accelerating a deeper realignment of trade flows. For South Africa, the shift is challenging but also creates opportunities in Asia, Africa, and Europe.
What the New US Tariffs Mean for Global Trade
On April 2, 2025, the US issued Executive Order 14257, establishing a 10% baseline tariff on imports, with reciprocal tariffs of up to 60% for targeted countries. For South Africa, this means a rate of around 30%, with some early reports noting 31% that came into effect in August 2025.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that such tariffs reduce access to the US market and push exporters to find new destinations. Boston Consulting Group calls this the start of a “new era of global trade”, one where no country is shielded from tariff risks.
Companies are already adjusting by redesigning supply chains and strengthening regional trade links. While the short-term effect is uncertainty, the long-term trend points to diversification and stronger trade partnerships.
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The 30% Tariff and Its Effect on South Africa
South Africa has been directly affected by the US tariffs. Niche agricultural exports such as macadamias, raisins, fruit juice, and ostrich leather are exposed, but experts argue that this disruption is not fatal. Instead, it is speeding up diversification.
Sean Walsh, CEO of the JSE-listed KAL Group, explains:
“Trade flows are starting to realign and long-planned diversification into Asia, Africa, and Europe is gaining momentum, supported by better logistics and stronger trade partnerships.”
Walsh points out that the US is important but not dominant in agricultural trade. According to Agbiz, in Q1 2025:
- Africa accounted for 45% of South Africa’s agricultural exports,
- The EU 23%,
- The Americas 6%,
- With the US itself only about 4%.
Citrus: A Flagship Sector Still Growing
Citrus exports have been at the centre of the tariff debate, but the impact on this sector remains limited.
- In 2024, approximately 6.5 million cartons of citrus were exported to the US, accounting for around 5–6% of South Africa’s total citrus exports.
- Most 2025 shipments were sent before the tariffs took effect, meaning the larger impact will only be seen from 2026 onwards.
- The Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) recently revised its 2025 forecast up to 188.2 million cartons (15kg), from an initial 171 million. This would be a record crop.
Walsh stresses that while some competitors in South America and Europe may gain ground in the US, this creates opportunities for South Africa in other markets.
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Global Experts Warn of Long-Term Change
South Africa’s experience reflects a global trend. Tariffs are driving long-term structural change rather than temporary shifts.
The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) warns that US trade measures could cut global trade volumes and lower GDP growth worldwide, with efficiency losses even for the US.
McKinsey & Company highlights that the average US tariff rate is now at its highest level in over a century, forcing businesses to spread risk by diversifying suppliers. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization has cut its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to just 0.5%, citing the impact of the tariff regime.
Why Diversification Matters
South Africa has been preparing for these kinds of shocks. Its trade strategy already emphasises diversification, but the tariffs have added urgency.
Some of the key moves include:
- Citrus exports expanding into Vietnam
- Avocado exports into China, Japan, and India
- Premium wine targeting Asian markets
- New trade dialogues with Türkiye and Switzerland
These shifts also support continental goals under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which aims to unlock intra-African trade.
Opportunities Beyond the US
While the US is a valued partner, South Africa’s biggest growth opportunities lie elsewhere.
Macadamia producers are building strong links with India, where demand is rising. Wine and processed agricultural products are expanding into Asia. At the same time, new logistics hubs and regional agreements are helping South African exporters reach African markets more efficiently.
There is also an indirect benefit. If South American or European suppliers redirect goods to the US, South Africa can step into the markets they leave behind.
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Reshaping Trade for the Future
The full impact of US tariffs on South Africa will become clearer from 2026 onwards, when importers start comparing tariff costs and supplier competitiveness.
But South Africa is already adapting. The country is diversifying its markets, upgrading logistics, and strengthening trade partnerships. Instead of being weakened, its agricultural sector is repositioning for long-term growth.
On a global level, US tariffs reshape trade by pushing countries to diversify, improve resilience, and pursue new alliances. For South Africa, that realignment may prove to be an opportunity rather than a setback.